Re: the Manitoba Moose

I must agree with Mr. Redekop that the attendance at the Heat playoff games is ominous news for the future of the pocketbooks of the taxpayers of Abbotsford.

It bodes ill for future attendance at Heat games that even with the marked advantage of novelty with this being the first year for the Heat in Abbotsford, that in their first year the Heat made the AHL playoffs and that AHL playoff games have never been available west of Winnipeg before the Heat are drawing poorly.

The fact that attendance is lackluster under such favourable circumstances strongly suggests that, under the terms of the 10 year agreement council entered into with the ownership of the Heat, the taxpayers of Abbotsford will have to pour millions of more taxpayer dollars into the coffers of the Heat ownership.

Just as an aside Mr. Redekop: if the Heat ownership was in fact “… community minded, generous …” they would have assumed at least some of the risk associated with the ownership of an AHL hockey team rather than foisting all the risk off onto Abbotsford’s already overburdened taxpayers.

While I concede that the Moose would perform better that the Heat, how could they not, the view expressed in Mr. Redekop’s letter strikes me as viewing this possibility through the same rose coloured glasses the mayor and council wore when they committed city taxpayers to the overly generous agreement signed with the Heat ownership.

The attendance dynamic of a single yearly visit by the Canucks farm team is markedly different from the dynamic when there are numerous opportunities to catch a game over the course of a season. The fact that during their one visit the Moose drew full houses does not mean they will fill the arena for every home game.

The attendance at this year’s playoff games is probably a better predictor of a realistic attendance level over a season than the attendance at ‘the only chance this year to see the Moose’.

It is important to be realistic because I doubt that “the win-win situation for all parties should require no payment by anyone.”

What I mean by this is:

If the Heat remain in Abbotsford and attendance follows the historical patterns/trends the taxpayers of Abbotsford are looking at contributing 2 – 3 million dollars a year over the remaining 9 years of the agreement council signed with the Heat; a total of 18 – 27 million dollars.

If Mr. Redekop’s assumption of full attendance if the Moose were exchanged for the Heat was correct that would mean taxpayers would save $18 – $27 million over the term of the agreement between the City and Heat ownership.

Let us use the lower $18 million as the amount that taxpayers would save. That means it is worth $18 million to the taxpayers of Abbotsford to have the Moose as Abbotsford’s AHL team. Thus the ownership of the Moose has a team with a value of $18,000,000.00 in respect to moving the Moose to Abbotsford.

Sound business practices dictate that the Moose ownership should charge $18,000,000.00 to exchange franchises/teams given that that amount is the value of the savings to the Abbotsford taxpayers of exchanging franchises/teams.

However should the assumption of full attendance turn out to be another of the ‘rose coloured glasses’ mirages sold to the Abbotsford public and the ‘they are here all season long’ attendance prove to be not significantly higher than the Heats current attendance then the value of the exchange of the Heat for the Moose has a $0.00 value. A value significantly lower than the $18,000,000.00 value under Mr. Redekop’s full attendance assumption.

Although it would be in keeping with the mismanagement of this matter by Abbotsford council to date, it would be rather unwise to pay $18,000,000.00 for an exchange of franchises/teams that in fact has a zero value.

The large difference between these values is why it is so important that any projections as to the benefit of having the Moose as the team in Abbotsford be realistic and reasonably accurate.

‘The Winnipeg Heat owners would win because …’ again a ‘rose coloured glasses’ view of the situation.

Hockey is taken very seriously on the prairies and rivalries are heated. Calgary and Winnipeg have a rivalry established when the Jets were Winnipeg’s NHL team. There was no love lost between Winnipeg (Jets) and Calgary (Flames) when they were NHL rivals. This situation was not improved when Winnipeg lost its NHL team but Calgary and its oil money held onto the Flames.

The ownership of the Winnipeg AHL team would be taking a not insignificant risk that a Calgary affiliated team would tap into old feelings and be rejected by the fans.

On the prairies it is Toronto that is despised; Vancouver is simply la-la land.

It is in the statement ‘The Canucks would also be big winners’ that I feel both the biggest fallacy and barrier in regards to an exchange of franchises/teams lies.

Whether the Moose games are sell-outs or not is of no interest to the Canucks as they have no financial interest in the attendance at Moose games.

The interest of the Canucks in the Moose is not in the ability of the Moose franchise to make money but in the ability of the Moose to develop the skills and abilities of players to the level that enables them to play and contribute to the NHL Canucks.

It is in order to preserve the ability of the Moose to develop Canucks prospects to the level of playing and contributing at the NHL level I suspect the Canucks would block any attempt to move their farm team from Winnipeg to Abbotsford. I certainly would if I was running the Canucks organization.

In Winnipeg the Moose are simply a AHL team and subject to no unusual media attention.

If the Moose were relocated to Abbotsford the team, coaches and players would be caught up in the Canucks media circus/frenzy. This intense, constant media attention would interfere with the ability of coaches and players to focus on hockey, player and skills development.

Given that the fortunes of the Canucks depend on the ability of the Moose to develop players, perhaps more importantly have players ready to step into the Canucks line-up and produce (injuries etc.), I would certainly not want to move the Moose into a market where these functions would be compromised or impaired.

I would expect that for these reasons, as well as several other issues that come to mind, the Canucks would be opposed to a move of their AHL farm (player development) team into Abbotsford.

While having the Moose (the Canucks farm team) as Abbotsford’s AHL team is an idea worth exploring, I have serious reservations that it would be either the cure all or slam dunk Mr. Redekop envisions.

I am not saying it is not a possibility to be explored. I am solidly in favour of anything that will reduce how much of the $65,700,000 liability city council has put taxpayers on the hook for that the taxpayer’s of Abbotsford end up having to pay out.

What I am saying is not to rush into something based on the ‘rosy glasses view’ and promises of success.

That’s what happened with the new arena and what created this financial quagmire. Unlike council and their supporters I am a firm believer that when you find yourself in a hole you do not keep digging yourself in ever deeper, creating ever larger costs that the taxpayers are on the hook to pay for.